Purpose, Objectives, and Key Question
The aim of the project is to draw the big picture of how advanced renewable transport fuels (i.e., advanced biofuels and renewable liquid and gaseous transport fuels of non-biological origin) can contribute to the decarbonization of the transport sector. The key question is:
How much can advanced renewable transport fuels contribute to the decarbonization of the transport sector?
The audience is policy makers.
The activities include the following work packages:
Key strategies in selected countries
- Annex participants from Brazil, China, Finland, Germany, Japan, Sweden and the United States provided detailed descriptions of GHG emissions from their road transport sectors and shared scenarios of how their countries intend to reduce these emissions.
Fuel production technologies and costs
- A number of experts from within the IEA Bioenergy TCP and the AMF TCP networks provided descriptions of biomass feedstock availability, technology status, biofuel production costs, future feedstock costs, future fuels GHG emissions, the role of policy, and engine and fuel compatibility.
- Experts of VTT assessed the possible future development of vehicle stocks of all kinds for Brazil, Germany and Sweden and calculated the future energy demand and associated GHG emissions. Scenarios were developed to show the effect of pushing the use of biofuels and electrofuels to the limits. This was compared to the national targets for GHG emissions from the transport sector.
- The country assessments are being put into global perspective.
- Results from AMF Annex 59 regarding implementation barriers for advanced biofuels are summarized.
Recommendations to policy makers
- This section is still under development. It will draw conclusions from the project and provide actionable recommendations to policy makers.
- A workshop was held in November 2019 in Brussels to discuss the project findings with some 70 participants from the biofuels, the automotive and the oil industry.
- An online seminar will be held to present the findings and discuss with the audience on 17th November, 2020. Details will be provided here: https://www.ieabioenergy.com/iea-publications/webinars/
The figure on the next page shows clearly the results for Germany.
The lines depict CO2 emissions from road transport as calculated as tailpipe emissions (with biofuels and the use of electricity accounting for 0 tailpipe emissions). The current policy is depicted in the base case scenario (blue line). If maximizing biofuel utilization, CO2 emissions can be further reduced (green line). The effect of electrification alone is about as large as the effect of the current moderate biofuels utilization. While with the maximum use of biofuels and electrification together, full decarbonization can almost be reached by 2050, Germany’s target for 2030 of reducing CO2 emissions to around 30 to 40 million tons per year will be missed by far.
Fig. 2 Scenarios of CO2 Emissions from Road Transportation for Germany
A key message from the project is that decarbonization of the transport sector can only be reached with a set of measures and fuel/energy options, of which biofuels constitute an important part. There is sufficient biomass available to support the large-scale roll-out of biofuels, and current vehicles can accommodate these amounts.
January 2019 - November 2020
China, Finland, Germany, Japan, Sweden, USA, AMF Annex 28, AMF Annex 59
USD 200.000 (~ € 169.000)